On 10 May, Facey held its annual Southeast Business Breakfast, hosting clients for a morning of networking, market discussion and a fantastic breakfast by The Healthlink Crew.
With the upcoming election looming in the back of everyone’s minds, keynote speakers Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at REA Group, and Julian Cheng, a tax consulting Partner at Pitcher Partners, addressed the impacts that either a Labor or Liberal government’s election would have on the commercial property market.
Conisbee spoke on how world events in the US, Asia and the UK, as well as the national election, may have variable impacts on property, possibly leading to less pressure on mortgage rates with more pressure on employment. She highlighted that while there is no shortage of money, consumer confidence and the fear of over-paying are key factors limiting price growth. Meanwhile, industrial real estate remains the most popular asset class, with land values reaching record highs and leading to rental growth.
Cheng focussed more heavily on the proposed tax changes of each of the leading parties, with the Coalition aiming for reduced corporate and low- to middle-income owners’ tax rates. Cheng warned of Labor’s proposed removal of negative gearing and reduction of the discount on capital gains, and the potentially negative impact these changes could have property investment, likely causing further softening in the market.
Post-Event Election Comments
“Property market conditions are now looking far more positive than where they were at the start of the year. Access to finance is slowly easing and it looks like we may have an interest rate cut. Despite conditions being slower this year, we are seeing very little signs of distress in property markets and employment growth remains positive. The second half of 2019 is looking far better than the first half.”
“We are still seeing weakness in the residential market. It’s difficult to gauge when a turnaround in prices is expected but at least the uncertainty associated with Labor’s proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax policies has now been removed.”
“Facey look forward to the commercial market continuing to be led by a strong industrial property market. Rental growth is likely post the Coalition win and confidence is a popular topic with our investors.”